STRC h01 Phase 8g-v3-lite + 8h-lite #9 — Pocket-max-φ resample + PBPK dose-escalation sweep 2026-04-26

Closes the diagnostic gate that Phase 8g-v2 left open (“STRC pose anion-O sub-optimal for electrostatics; is the FAIL pose-driven or residue-driven?”) and quantifies the dose-escalation lever surfaced by Phase 8h-lite #7 (default-apical 0% time-above-EC at 100 µM IT).

Phase 8g-v3-lite — pocket-max-φ resample

Method

Re-samples the existing Phase 8g-v2 (CONHOH lead) and Phase 7i (CONHOMe lead) APBS potential.dx grids — no new APBS compute, only resampling logic changes. Per receptor + variant:

  1. Heavy-atom grid of lead pose centroid + 12 × 12 × 12 Å cube at 0.5 Å step (24 484 voxels).
  2. Solvent-accessibility mask: keep voxels with 1.5 Å ≤ d_to_nearest_protein_heavy_atom ≤ 4.0 Å. Excludes both protein-interior charge cores (artefact source: φ > +100 kT/e) and bulk-solvent reaches (φ → 0). Yields 50–64 % accessible-voxel fraction.
  3. pocket_top10_phi: mean of top-10 % most-positive accessible voxels (≈ 1 200 voxels averaged). Pose-independent upper bound on what an anion-O could sample if reorientation were free; robust to single-voxel artefacts.
  4. pocket_max_phi: single-voxel max within accessibility shell.
  5. pose_anion_phi: φ at Vina-pose hydroxamate/methoxamate-O atoms (matches Phase 8g-v2 / 7i parent metric).

Verdict gate

PASS — STRC pocket_top10 exceeds every off-target by ≥ +2 kT/e (residue-driven gate satisfied; FAIL was pose-driven; site-defined re-dock would close). WEAK — STRC leads but margin < +2 kT/e. FAIL — any off-target ≥ STRC (no pose adjustment of same head can rescue gate).

Result

Both variants FAIL, but margin narrowed by ~3 kT/e vs Phase 8g-v2 pose-anion metric.

CONHOH variant — verdict FAIL, margin −5.24 kT/e

Receptorpocket_top10 φ (kT/e)pocket_max φpose-anion ⟨φ⟩Δ(pose ↔ argmax) Åacc %
STRC_E1659A_K1141+29.95+141.48+2.515.9551
TMEM16A_7ZK3+35.19+137.91+4.899.1261
TRPM4_8RD9+24.03+132.10+9.366.5859
Cx50_via_Cx36_8QOJ+16.20+82.81−3.024.9558
KCNQ4_7BYM+15.35+125.55+0.916.9650

Worst off-target: TMEM16A.

CONHOMe variant — verdict FAIL, margin −2.49 kT/e

Receptorpocket_top10 φ (kT/e)pocket_max φpose-anion ⟨φ⟩Δ(pose ↔ argmax) Åacc %
TRPM4_8RD9+24.39+127.22+6.126.6560
STRC_E1659A_K1141+21.90+121.49+2.486.0052
Cx50_via_Cx36_8QOJ+16.83+79.95−3.553.3559
TMEM16A_7ZK3+15.54+132.57+4.276.2964
KCNQ4_7BYM+12.77+108.13+1.128.2856

Worst off-target: TRPM4. Note the worst-off-target swap CONHOH→CONHOMe (TMEM16A → TRPM4) — different head groups face different dominant off-target risks, useful for steering v5.3.

Interpretation

  1. STRC K1141 IS electropositive at +21.9 / +29.95 kT/e top-10% (consistent with Phase 5k matched-ensemble pocket-centre +5.99 ± 1.37; top-10% naturally higher than centre mean). Mech-4 thermodynamic claim holds.
  2. Vina pose was indeed sub-optimal — STRC Δ(pose ↔ argmax) ≈ 6 Å; pose-anion ⟨φ⟩ +2.48–2.51 vs pocket ceiling +21.90–29.95. Site-defined re-dock could lift STRC pose-anion-φ by ~+15 kT/e on the absolute axis.
  3. But the gate cannot close by re-dock alone. Pose-φ ceiling equals pocket_top10. STRC pocket ceiling +21.90 (CONHOMe) ≤ TRPM4 ceiling +24.39. Best-case re-dock places STRC pose-anion at +21.90; TRPM4 already sits at top-10% of +24.39 worth of voxels. Off-target pocket interior is intrinsically more electropositive on the dominant off-target — not a pose artefact.
  4. Margin narrowed but the verdict-class is the same as Phase 8g-v2: FAIL. The Phase 8g-v2 hub-frontmatter claim “Triggers Phase 8g-v3 site-defined re-dock + Phase 8e-v2 STRC pose-anion-O re-rank” is superseded by this diagnostic — full re-dock would not flip the verdict, only narrow the margin further (not enough to clear the +2 kT/e gate).
  5. The kinetic-selectivity escape hatch is now load-bearing. Per Pharmacochaperone Residence Time Criterion, slow STRC k_off + fast off-target k_off can deliver clinical selectivity without thermodynamic-affinity selectivity. τRAMD on the v5.2 shortlist becomes elevated from P1-light to P0 for h01.
  6. Boltz-2 binding-mode test on TRPM4 / TMEM16A for top-2 Tier-1 — does electrostatic attraction (+24.39 / +35.19 kT/e at pocket interior) translate to a real Boltz-2 ipTM binding pose? Electrostatic pull is necessary, not sufficient. If ipTM stays low, anti-selective electrostatics is academic, not pharmacological. P0-light.

Why the original Phase 8g-v3 plan stops here

The hub next_step queue listed “Phase 8g-v3 site-defined re-dock + Phase 8e-v2 STRC pose-anion-O re-rank” as the heavy P0. The diagnostic this script ran proves both moves cannot close the gate: STRC pocket ceiling < dominant off-target pocket ceiling on both variants. Running them would consume ~2 h compute to confirm a foregone conclusion. Phase 8g-v3 full is stopped; capital re-allocated to τRAMD (P0) and Boltz-2 off-target binding-mode (P0-light).


Phase 8h-lite #9 — PBPK dose-escalation sweep

Method

Sister to cochlear_pbpk_ode.py (Phase 8h-lite #7). Identical 8-compartment topology, volumes, and rate constants. Sweeps applied IT dose × [100 µM, 1 mM, 10 mM] × [fast / default / slow] apical-uptake bracket. Tracks two ceilings:

  • frac_72h_HC_ER ≥ 1 µM — therapeutic-window fraction (HC_ER target compartment).
  • frac_72h_HC_CYT ≥ 50 µM — safety-ceiling flag. Empirical threshold from Givinostat mARC1 2 Hydroxamate Bypass: Cmax 4 µM at MTD; 10× margin = 40 µM cytosol; rounded up to 50 µM.

IT dose precedent: dexamethasone IT 10–60 mM (Auritec OTO-104 etc.); SPI-1005 / ebselen IT up to 30 mM. 1 mM and 10 mM applied are well within IT pharmacy.

Therapeutic window — % of 72 h with HC_ER ≥ 1 µM

Apical scenario100 µM1 mM10 mM
fast_apical (t½ 30 min)38.9 %96.9 %98.5 %
default_apical (t½ 95 min)0.0 %95.8 %98.0 %
slow_apical (t½ 300 min)0.2 %93.8 %97.4 %

Safety flag — % of 72 h with HC_CYT ≥ 50 µM

Apical scenario100 µM1 mM10 mM
fast_apical0.0 %0.0 %93.7 %
default_apical0.0 %0.0 %65.5 %
slow_apical0.0 %0.0 %0.0 %

HC_ER Cmax (µM)

Apical scenario100 µM1 mM10 mM
fast_apical1.3413.50133.78
default_apical0.909.5288.94
slow_apical1.194.7743.13

Interpretation

  • 1 mM is the sweet spot. Closes therapeutic window across all three apical brackets (94 – 97 % time-above-EC) without breaching safety ceiling (0 % HC_CYT ≥ 50 µM in all three apical scenarios).
  • 10 mM is the safety cliff. 65 – 94 % HC_CYT ≥ 50 µM in fast / default apical. Only slow-apical bracket stays safe at 10 mM — but slow-apical is the worst-case low-uptake scenario, so this represents window narrowing, not a usable design space.
  • Phase 8h-lite #7 deliv-3 ceiling on the exposure side is liftable purely through dose escalation. No new chemistry, no new permeation enhancer required. The eustachian-tube clearance bottleneck identified in #7 (k_eu = 1.16 × 10⁻² /min ≈ 11 000× faster than k_RWM = 1.0 × 10⁻⁶ /min) is overcome by mass-action: depositing 10× more compound makes the ~10⁻⁴ that crosses RWM still a clinically meaningful absolute amount.
  • But deliv axis cannot lift to 4 yet — selectivity gate (Phase 8g-v3-lite FAIL) is the binding constraint, not exposure. A 1 mM IT dose that solves exposure but lands at +24 kT/e on TRPM4 with ~similar pose-anion-φ as STRC is no longer a viable lead.

Combined verdict

AxisPre-sessionPost-sessionDriver
mech44 heldSTRC K1141 pocket genuinely electropositive (top-10% +21.9 to +29.95 kT/e)
deliv33 heldExposure rescued at 1 mM IT (94-97% therapeutic window), but selectivity gate FAIL at residue level prevents axis lift
misha_fit44 heldunchanged
tierAA held

Net move: the heavy-queue P0 from the hub frontmatter (Phase 8g-v3 + 8e-v2 re-dock pair) is stopped as a foregone-conclusion compute. Replaced by:

  • P0: τRAMD on v5.2 shortlist (kinetic-selectivity escape hatch, now load-bearing per finding #5 above)
  • P0-light: Boltz-2 binding-mode at TRPM4 (CONHOMe lead) and TMEM16A (CONHOH lead) — does anti-selective electrostatic ceiling translate to actual binding ipTM?
  • P0-light: 1 mM IT dose locked as reference dose for all subsequent PBPK / wet-lab / paper claims (supersedes Phase 8h-lite #7 100 µM reference)
  • P1-light: v5.3 design pivot — explore weakly-anionic head groups (acyl sulfonamide, mono-anionic 1,3,4-oxadiazol-2(3H)-one) that mute electrostatic pull on highly-cationic off-target interiors while still satisfying Phase 5k STRC pocket ⟨φ⟩ +5.99 kT/e
  • Defer: full Phase 8g-v3 site-defined re-dock (does not flip verdict per this diagnostic)

Ranking delta

  • tier: A → A (held)
  • mech: 4 → 4 (held; pocket electropositivity reconfirmed at the residue-driven level for STRC)
  • deliv: 3 → 3 (held; exposure rescue at 1 mM IT but selectivity gate still FAIL)
  • misha_fit: 4 → 4 (held)
  • next_step: replace “Phase 8g-v3 site-defined re-dock + Phase 8e-v2 STRC pose-anion-O re-rank” with “τRAMD v5.2 shortlist (P0) + Boltz-2 TRPM4/TMEM16A binding-mode (P0-light) + 1 mM IT dose locked as reference”

Connections